Analysis

Robbing Peter to Pay Paul: Not the New Czech President’s Style

Czech Republic's President-elect Petr Pavel gives interview to television after announcement of the preliminary results during the runoff vote in Czech presidential election at his election HQ in Prague, Czech Republic, 28 January 2023. EPA-EFE/MARTIN DIVISEK

Robbing Peter to Pay Paul: Not the New Czech President’s Style

January 30, 202317:01
January 30, 202317:01
The steely, soft-spoken former general Petr Pavel holds his first post-election calls with the Ukrainian and Taiwanese presidents, indicating a steadfastness in priorities when he takes office in March.

While that may have attracted some additional support from a sizable but fragmented anti-establishment and extremist minority that has emerged in the country, it also appeared to help mobilise the liberal democratic part of the electorate. The resulting turnout of over 70 per cent was a record for the second round of the election.

Behind Pavel’s campaign slogan of “order and stability”, a majority of the country showed their determination to oust the populist politics first flirted with by former Czech president Vaclav Klaus, and continued by successor Milos Zeman and Babis – for the meantime at least.

People walk past election posters of presidential candidate Petr Pavel, in Prague, Czech Republic, 26 January 2023. The poster says: “Enough of the chaos, I’ll give you advice and dignity.” EPA-EFE/MARTIN DIVISEK

Exit stage left

The president of the Czech Republic has few executive powers, save for making formal appointments to the government, constitutional court and central bank. Yet Milos Zeman, the cantankerous populist whose second and final term in Prague Castle will end on March 8, has spent the past decade testing the boundaries of the post, thanks to a loosely written constitution.

He has meddled with the makeup of governments and in particular muddied Czechia’s foreign policy. His efforts to forge closer ties with Russia and China in spite of official government lines stressing EU and NATO membership as cornerstones have often helped confuse Western allies.

By contrast, Pavel, a former head of the Czech Army and NATO’s Military Committee, is expected to realign the presidency with Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s government, which has vowed to reject the populism of Babis – a billionaire who served a scandal-plagued term as premier before he was ousted by the current five-party coalition in late 2021 – and follow a determinedly liberal-democratic line.

Government officials have already said they expect Pavel to be supportive of their policy agenda. “Petr Pavel’s presidency should help us to implement the domestic and foreign policy priorities of the Czech government,” Marketa Pekarova Adamova, parliamentary speaker and leader of the Top09 coalition party, told BIRN.

Although there are some potential points of disagreement, such as Pavel’s acceptance of the EU’s Green Deal or adoption of the euro, the president-elect’s liberal-conservative views are a good match for those of Fiala’s government.

Pavel has also spoken of banishing the populism that has haunted the political landscape during Zeman and Babis’s time in power. “Values like truth, dignity, respect and modesty have won,” the former general said after his victory was declared on Saturday afternoon.

“Defeating populism is never easy. It would not be possible if the majority of people did not want to live in a country where the basic principles of democracy and freedom are recognised,” said Fiala as he celebrated Pavel’s victory and urged the country to unite following a “vile” campaign conducted by Babis and his supporters.

Slovak President Zuzana Caputova (R) speaks after announcement of the result of the runoff vote in the Czech presidential election at Petr Pavel’s (L) election HQ in Prague, Czech Republic, 28 January 2023. EPA-EFE/MARTIN DIVISEK

Allies near and far

The primary focus of the campaign was inevitably the war in Ukraine. And while Babis accused his rival of planning to send Czechs to the front line, Pavel urged them to put their trust in his military experience.

Again, that’s a good match for Fiala’s pledge to return the Czech Republic to the Western mainstream following recent years of confusion under Zeman and Babis, and Pavel has wasted little time in making clear his commitment to raising Czechia’s credentials among Euro-Atlantic allies.

Reflecting his hawkish views on Russia and China, his first actions were to have calls with Ukrainian President Zelensky and Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. The latter drew a request for “verification” from Beijing.

He has also suggested that Czechia should consider a defence deal with the US that could allow NATO to use military facilities in the country.

Closer to home, Pavel’s election could encourage closer ties with some of Czechia’s Visegrad Group (V4) neighbours.

Slovak President Zuzana Caputova, long viewed as an icon by Czech liberals, even made a surprise appearance at Pavel’s victory party. But at the same time, political chaos currently reigns in Slovakia and it’s difficult to gauge how warm Pavel might find the welcome in Bratislava by the middle of next year following parliamentary and presidential elections that could favour populist forces.

The former general’s firm stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine looks likely to help further cement ties with Poland, despite significant differences with the Eurosceptic government in Warsaw.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki was swift to congratulate Pavel on his victory over Babis, who infuriated his former ally when he suggested during the campaign that he would not respect NATO’s Article 5 treaty by coming to Poland’s aid if needed.

“Congratulations [Petr Pavel] on your election victory,” Morawiecki tweeted. “The Polish-Czech partnership is the guarantor of our region’s safety. Together we can achieve much.”

However, Prague’s relations with Hungary’s populist and illiberal regime are unlikely to improve once Babis and Zeman – both of whom supported Prime Minister Viktor Orban in his battles with Brussels – have both departed the scene.

Pavel has stated that the fear that Babis could copy Orban’s populist model to take control of Czechia was the main reason he ran.

“The differences between the V4 countries in a number of important issues, such as the attitude towards Russia, China, the functioning of the EU, but also the approach to solving internal political problems, are so fundamental today that it is very difficult to talk about a common basis and interest,” Pavel said during the campaign.

“The V4 group thus loses credibility and importance. If we fail to restore a strong common denominator, V4 will be just a formal, empty shell,” he warned.

Tim Gosling