The Chinese government's report for the first quarter of 2024 was a mixed bag of cause for optimism and systemic issues that continue to drag on economic growth.
Newsweek charts based on the latest data from China's National Statistics Bureau illustrate three key bellwethers of the world's second-largest economy.
GDP
According to the new data, China's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.3 percent year over year, slightly higher than Q4 2023 and beating many economists' expectations.
Though early, the figure would seem to put the economy on the right track to meet the annual target of "around 5 percent" growth announced by China's cabinet-like State Council last month.
However, the figure belies the fact that the growth seen in several sectors of the economy, such as exports, was frontloaded in the first two months of the year and was off by March.
Then there's China's GDP numbers themselves that many, including China's former No. 2 Li Keqiang, have called into doubt.
Economist George Magnus, associate at the University of Oxford China Centre, told Newsweek on Thursday that he believes China's long-term growth rate is now around the 3 percent mark.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate for the first quarter averaged 5.3 percent, continuing the trend of between 5 percent and 5.3 percent since early last year.
China calculates its quarterly unemployment averages as a percentage of unemployed persons relative to the sum of the unemployed and employed segments of the population.
Notably, China's unemployment reports do not account for those living in rural areas, which comprise about one-third of the population.
A separate report released by the statistics bureau on Thursday broke down the nation's employment situation by age.
The report posted 7.2 percent unemployment rate for the 25- to 29-year-old demographic and a lower-than-average 4.2 percent for those between 30 and 59.
Joblessness among Chinese youth remains high, despite central government initiatives introduced last year to create internships and public-sector job opportunities. Thursday's report posted 15.3 percent unemployment for the 15- to 24-year-old group, matching February's rate and 0.7 points higher than January's.
The figures are an improvement over those in the first half of 2023, however.
After last June's numbers (21.3 percent youth unemployment), Beijing ceased reporting on the issue. Six months later, reports resumed, based on new methodology that excluded rural dwellers and those who have given up looking for work.
Real Estate
A housing market crunch continues to loom as China seeks to emerge from its post-pandemic economic malaise. This weighs particularly heavy on China considering that the sector accounts for 30 percent of the economy and 70 percent of household wealth.
The Q1 report showed investment in real estate development to be down 9.5 percent since the same period last year.
Total sales of new commercial buildings fell by 27.6 percent and sales of new commercial floor space by 19.4 percent, an indication that prices are not yet believed to have bottomed out.
With the collapse of China's property bubble still in recent memory, risk-averse policymakers have so far not moved to lend a helping hand to indebted real state giants and local governments.
Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in the U.S., told Newsweek that Beijing has achieved initial success in averting local defaults and "held the bottom line of no systemic risks."
"In the future, China will promote debt risk defusing in the course of high-quality development," he said. "High-quality development" is a term often employed by Chinese President Xi Jinping to promote more sustainable growth, even if at lower rates than seen during the property boom years.
Liu said that while the decline in property prices so far this year is low compared to last year's higher base, "the absolute volume of real estate sales is not low." "China's real estate market still has the conditions for sustainable and healthy development," the spokesperson added.
Update 4/22/24, 2:30 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with a comment from the Chinese embassy.
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About the writer
Micah McCartney is a reporter for Newsweek based in Taipei, Taiwan. He covers U.S.-China relations, East Asian and Southeast Asian ... Read more
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